Statistics can predict Oscars winners
Cool. Now I can bet in Biff Tannen-Back to the Future Part II-style, on the Academy Award winners for 2009 (and a few years beyond, just to be sure) and give up pro-blogging once and for all…
Iain Pardoe of the University of Oregon in Eugene and Dean Simonton of the University of California, Davis, took a purely statistical approach. They analysed the histories of around 1600 Oscar nominees between 1928 and 2006 in the four major categories: best picture, director, leading actor and leading actress. Then the pair teased out several factors that correlated with Oscar wins, including previous nominations and Golden Globe wins.
They came up trumps 70 per cent of the time. That makes for pretty good betting I think ;)
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