German schoolboy, 13, corrects NASA’s asteroid figures

Is this meant to be good news, or what? Now the odds have improved considerably in the asteroid’s favour. Not ours.

Nico Marquardt used telescopic findings from the Institute of Astrophysics in Potsdam (AIP) to calculate that there was a 1 in 450 chance that the Apophis asteroid will collide with Earth, the Potsdamer Neuerster Nachrichten reported. NASA had previously estimated the chances at only 1 in 45,000 but told its sister organisation, the European Space Agency (ESA), that the young whizzkid had got it right.

Mind, one chance in 450 is still pretty good, and that’s what the “odds” of an impact would be if the asteroid were to strike an Earth orbiting satellite.

I’d actually have thought the asteroid would simply steam roller over whatever unfortunate probe it bumps into, and carry on as if nothing had happened…

Update: it seems NASA are correct with their 1 in 45000 odds of an impact. At least Apophis poses no apparent threat to us for the time being.